[USER]

Please help me stop spiraling in analysis paralysis.
Our goal FIRE date is January 2027.

We plan to sell our house and live nomadic for a decade (or however long we last) around the world and US. Basically in Airbnb’s / Furnished rentals 1-3 months at a time as well as some Truck Camping sprinkled in.

Then we plan to find a place to call home at potentially buy again.

About us. I am a Builder / General Contractor and also manage 10 (soon to be 12) rentals. My husband is a Power Lineman.

His job doesn’t allow him to slowly reduce hours to retire. He is all hours in (plus more) or nothing/quit.

We live off his income. And my job is to build our empire by reinvesting what I make into building rentals.

I have a past life as a math teacher so I find comfort in working with numbers. But man I have calculated and recalculated our plan so many times to find my shortfall.

I’d love a second, third… set of eyes to look at this and tell me if we are good. It seems like a yes, but then I wonder if I am unknowingly tweaking it to look good enough for FIRE.

I just don’t want to set us up for failure.

And it makes it worse that my husband could care less about the numbers and just says “you let me know when, until then, Ill just keep working”

– Taxes should be low because withdrawal amount will be mostly tax free, and high amount of tax write offs with rental income.

– 7% average growth for stock market and 2.6% average increase in inflation for rentals, SS, and total expenses.

So what percent chance will this fail? What am I not accounting for?

[Dani]

using 3% inflation just to be safe.

Your taxes seem very low 7.4%, why is this?

[Steve]

1) Why taxes are only 7.4% of income. Do you live in Monaco or Bermuda?
2) 2.6% inflation assumption for expenses is reasonable, but optimistic.

I’d use 3.5-4% just to be conservative.

[Emily]

I like the tools that tell you what your chances of success and failure are. That was really helpful for me

[Erica]

Only thing to consider: who is managing the properties? Will the rent amount keep up with inflation?

What happens if someone has a major health issue? Just things to think about however looks good.

[Joe]

is the plan to die with millions in the bank account or is all that cushion leftover money for your children cuz it looks like you got enough left over where your great great grand kids wouldnt really need to work.

[Flash]

Is it just me or is income needed for 2041 have a typo? Re 993k? I would also look into the impact on ur income to SS, I’ve not done much research here beyond a few articles but I believe income u have coming in from other sources can greatly impact how heavily SS is taxed.

[Molly]

No one can predict the future. There must be plenty of room for flexibility.

Focus on the big picture, minimum cash flow requirements…

[David]

1) What if the city yours rentals are in goes down? Investing in Detroit real estate 20-30 years ago did not go well…,

2) I think you should separate out health expenses separately – too easy to roll them into “all” (and is a red flag),

3) you have ZERO exposure to stocks & bonds?

Remember that stocks were FLAT from 1965 to 1982 – why couldn’t that happen again?,

4) who does property management while you are gone – again that cost should be separate?,

5) I think based on what I have seen so far, I ballpark at 50/50 odds?

[Author]

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