[Jeanette]

What is everyone’s thought on the climate of the housing market? My husband feels like something has to give to disrupt the inflated prices but I just don’t see that happening.

Any thoughts?

[Michael]

My thoughts are life is so expensive even without a mortgage maintaining a property is exorbitant.

Another 200-300% increase in value and time to downgrade

[Aaron]

True, the whole housing market needs to crash by a good 20-30% in order to address affordability.

However, since most Americans treat their home as a savings/investment account (sometimes their ONLY savings/investment account), the government will continue to artificially keep prices inflated. Either through zoning, regulations or interest rates.

[Dion]

People have felt that way for 14 years.
We have none of the indicators that existed in 2007.
We had:

51% of mortgages were adjustable. We now have less than 4%.
We had NINJA loans. Now we don’t.

People finances 105% of the value of the house to wrap closing costs into the loan. Now people have equity and 43% of homes are paid off.
Remote work is a game changer.

It makes all “affordability” indexes worthless.

Videos talking about a crash get hundreds of thousands of views.
Videos talking about the crash being in transactions not price, get two thousand.

Here is just a couple of the “But this time it’s different” scary stories used to get views:

2013: Prices are above 2008. This is unaffordable and has to crash. (I purchased a duplex)

2015: The silver tsunami is going to hit. Boomers can start retiring. A flood of inventory will crash the market.

2018: interest rates are above 6% the market has to crash. No one can afford properties. (I purchased a duplex and paid off a house. Paying off the house made me lose over a million)

2020: An eviction moratorium. No one has to pay and you can’t evict them. (I purchased a fourplex house hack and emptied my retirement accounts to buy a triplex)

2021: Forbearance is ending. Foreclosures will crash the market. (I purchased a duplex. And retired in 2022)

2023: prices and rates are too high it has to crash. Repeat in 2024. Repeat in 2025.

There will always be big scary unpredictable reasons to not buy.
Financial freedom comes from taking action. Mitigating risk and ignoring the FUD.

You’ve got this.

[Matt]

It’s tough because the government kept the rates low so it froze the market as people do not want to move now. The market is a lot less liquid making what is available increase in price.

Interest rates need to lower in order for the market to get back to normal and get people selling again.

However, the major investment houses(blackstone, Blackrock) identified the opportunity to cheaply borrow and buy housing which preserved their capital through rising inflation.

(they started buying prior to inflation taking off so now are reaping the rewards).

Add the Airbnb economy and housing has become an asset class by itself rather than just a necessary living expense.

I. Personally do not see the housing market declining anytime soon due to mentioned reasons and inflation still rising.

[Rachael]

I just read 2.2 million people are behind on mortgages. I feel like houses are taking longer to sell, I don’t know, I think a recession is coming and people are going to lose their jobs

[Mitchell]

My wife and I just had this discussion (again). My opinion is nobody seems too disturbed that sales are at a 30 year low.

Everything is “stuck”. We have the ability to pay cash but prices are way too high for what you get.

And it will take a year or more before things change. Prices don’t match take home pay.

[Scott]

As tough as the market seems relative to a few years ago. It’s not when you zoom out. Did property jump the last few years? Answer yes. But they were flat for so long before that.

In a 10 yr avg it comes out to 3-5 % a year. do the mortgage rates seem high relative to a couple of years ago?

Yes. Zoom out again.. they’re about the same as they were 10-15 yrs ago.

Combined with the fact that we still have a massive housing shortage, it’s a pretty normal market. Unless some shock blasts the economy, prices won’t go up very fast, but they sure ain’t going down much either.

Some of y’all are probably just too young to have perspective.

At the end of the day, don’t wait around for something that probably won’t happen. Buy what you can and refinance later if the rates drop.

Prices aren’t going anywhere unless there is a massive hit to the economy.

[Roger]

I think that people hoping for a 2009-style price crash or a return to free money are delusional.

[Josh]

Your husband (and others) want prices to drop. But there is no indication I see that, that’s what will happen.

Flat to sub 3% growth is what most big players are predicting for 2025, on a national level.

In some markets there maybe be actual drops

[Bonsai]

Were locked in at 3% and in a very high demand part of the country. We don’t plan on selling anytime soon because everything has went up 2.5 times since we bought 4 years ago.

We talked about if either of us were offered an amazing job what would we do.

We would have to add the new cost of the house and the additional interest into what we would require of the offer.

And since that seems unlikely we will just be staying put for the next 5 years at least.

[Dan]

Supply and demand. In some markets there is no supply and until that changes prices will remain high, or even keep drifting higher

[Molly]

All Real Estate is Local…and global warming is affecting it in different ways, huge fires or storms wiping out housing in many markets.

Tariffs are expected to drive up building materials and insurance payouts are lacking.

Put all that together and the real estate market will likely continue to go up for family homes and lower income families will be stuck with corporate owned rentals… IMO

[Kate]

Stop waiting and wishing. So many people lost big time because of that in recent years.

Buy, don’t overpay, it will be fine long term.

[Bryan]

Something has to give, the next doubling of houses,.put ls average price at 750k, that is insane

[Michael]

I think interest rates will break home prices.
The 10year treasury has been steadily climbing. We are heading to 21st century highs despite drops in fed rate.

Mortgage rates are based on the 10year note, with current pace of spending I see no rate drop insight.

[ViJay]

We were in the same boat for the last couple years. We ended up buying as there’s no relief in sight.

Even then, it will be a bidding war.

[Dena]

This largely depends where you are. SW FL is plummeting FAST due to an over saturated market & insurance issues, but a friend moving to GA told me last night the values there are raising!

She’s had her home on the market for months and has been dropping it $5-10k a month with little showings.

It’s a mile from the beach in the most desirable area in our town & she’s only asking $250k, so we aren’t talking about a million dollar property.

[Mandi]

Hate to break it to him, but the prices aren’t coming down. We still have supply issues from almost 20 years ago. Also, the 08’ crash was a fluke because of poor lending practices and that’s changed.

I’d stop holding my breath waiting for it to happen.

You’re also currently competing with people who are keeping their last house (as a rental) because it was locked in under 3.50%. That creates further supply issues.

What they thinking it would be a starter home they’ll never get rid of now if they can avoid it.

If and I mean *if* the rates come down prices will only skyrocket again.

[Katy]

The biggest swings in RE happen on the coast – the midwest always stays more stable. People with 2-3% interest rates are never moving.

People are staying IN their homes vs nursing homes longer than anytime in history.

There is absolutely a shortage in quality homes. Real estate should be for the long-term – it’s not quick cash no matter what you see or hear on TV

[Ryan]

Just like with stocks, time in the market always beats timing.The market

[John]

The reality is that if the housing market crashes, most of us commoners are NOT going to be buying.

Why? Well no job security and no confidence. Do you have a large cash pile you’re willing to use to buy while the 6-7 figure asset is crashing?

Everyone that doesn’t own a home hopes for a crash. But 9 out of 10 won’t be buyers.

[Randy]

Developers are about to flood the market with really small homes on really small lots served with really tight streets to address affordability.

Get ready for super high density and all the nagative impacts that come with it.

[Author]

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