[‎‎USER]

This might be an inflammatory question, but I mean it with 100% sincerity. Why does the world assume that the US stock market will do the same thing in the next 100 years that it did in the last 100 years?

If I had to bet either way, my bet would be that it will behave in a way that is extremely different. It just seems like common sense in my mind.

However any time I say something like that I am met with extreme opposition.

Am I missing something important here or am I the kid in The Emperor’s New Clothes?

[Laurie]

I sometimes wonder the same thing. It feels like we are in unchartered times….

[Shawn]

I’m in favor of adding more international stocks generally. America is the largest stock market in the world by far and American companies do business all over the world.

A bet in the US stock market is a bet on world commerce.

If another stock market grows in market cap and is well governed I suppose you could move assets over there over time.

[Chris]

Well first off, don’t predict 100 year models, but models until 2118 at the latest. It sounds nit picky, but SPY is an actual trust tied to the literal lives of 11 millennials + 20 years or 2118, whichever comes first.

At that point, SPY is supposed to divide its assets (IE sell or divide ALL its holdings/stocks) to all shareholders.

In reality, there will probably be some legislation to bypass trust laws as a one off.

Some other ETFs are also Trusts as well, but SPY is very likely the largest and most impactful.

If assets are sold or divided, it would likely create a cascading effect and market crash.

Aside from that, the SP500 itself (instead of investing in things which track the index) is a solid bet.

It won’t be the same 500 companies as now, but you are putting your money that the most valuable 500+ companies and their likely rich board members with thousands of analysts will do what they do to keep making money.

If I had to bet money on who will have more money in a year, 500 random people or the 500 richest and most connected people, I would bet on the richest every time.

If you think a stock will tank, -you- are competing with proprietary algorithms analyzing microtrends, thousands of analysts from the best universities studying this particular company for decades, and large enough stacks of funding to move the literal market or cause it to standstill.

That is the SP500. Take coca cola for example.

It isn’t just a soda can, but an interconnected industrial process that connects virtually everyone in the world.

Their trash can be found at the bottom of the Mariana Trench to the top of Everest. Even virtually uncontacted tribes have been observed using metal from soda cans for spear tips.

Now if a SP500 company starts slipping or an industry changer happens like AI, then within a few quarters, those new powerhouse companies become the new SP500.

You might miss the valuation leap from company 3000 to 500 (and that could be serious capital gains), but you likely won’t miss it from company 500 to top 10 (also serious gains).

[Maquissia]

I do agree that US will no longer be a powerhouse in 100 years but since I can’t guarantee that will be the case, my money will stay invested in the stock market.

I honestly understand your observation.

[Stefano]

Rich people are going to behave the same and continue to steal from hard working ones.

Nobody knows the f market but for sure US market Will have same cycles like in the last 100 years

[Eric]

Growth. Inflation. Valuations go up.
Back in the 80s nobody would even think the Dow could get to nearly 50,000 points.

We will see 100,000 by 2033

[Jungwoo]

Better to just say stock market, cuz as America goes, so goes the world.

I’m generally in favor of remaining in stocks, because of all the mindblowing technology breakthroughs that are in progress, such as AI and CRISPR

[Dan]

I don’t think 100 years is the correct timeline. What are you basing your thoughts on?

You may be right and things are always changing, but for me the single biggest factor is that indexes like the s&p 500 are generally diversified globally to some degree and automatically readjust based on current market conditions and favorable sectors/countries.

[Tony]

I tend to agree with you. I run a lot of game theory in my head and often land on contrarian takes. For one, AI could smooth out some market inefficiencies, but I think volatility driven by emotion will still persist.

At some point, I believe shareholders will hold the bag while real wage growth catches up, I think its overdue, especially with how tough it is for younger generations.

Delayed adulthood is real!

My 18 year old would struggle on his own today.

Big picture, factors like labor scarcity, wage inflation, and even potential universal income could reshape margins and market dynamics.

We live in very interesting, dynamic, constantly changing times!

[Melissa]

People cannot expect profit and exponential growth to be permanent. However, consumption need not be tied to finite resources if we transition to more and more digital assets.

Tech is transformative – 50 years from now people may be buying virtual houses in a VR system.

Unlike today AI may run on solar or nuclear or some other yet to be developed tech.

Capitalism and gamification of the consumer are here to stay…but I hope we’ll have UBI and government will focus on the basic needs of all

[Peter]

While year to year variations exist, stock market returns are tethered to company earnings.

Are you saying long term corporate earnings will stagnate or decrease over the next hundred years?

Over the next 10 maybe, or maybe not. But capital markets suddenly stop working? Doubtful.

I suggest you stop being so emotional, diversify as necessary, and trust historical data in something you obviously don’t understand.

[Hillary]

All large companies are somewhat global companies. Most American SP500 companies are definitely global companies.

I don’t think it’s a world regime shift or inflation or monetary policy problem in total.

Future people everywhere will still need to buy food, clothes, toiletries, home improvements, entertainment, cars, etc, and war spending is a given too.

I think it’s a world population decline problem that would likely slow growth and consumer spending.

It probably won’t be visible for at least 30 years but if you look at Japan and their history of an inverted population pyramid, it seriously impacted their stock market for decades.

I don’t think the change will be immediate, likely just slower annual returns over a long time.

Another 50-100yrs. It might also not continue to decline if there are considerable technological advances that maximize growth despite an aging world population.

[Lynn]

It is something I have been discussing with a few of my inner circle and some posts in past few years.

Because the US dollar has been the world reserve currency and we also moved away from the gold standard under Nixon, there has been a lot of money printing and increase in m2 supply to give us lot of these returns.

History shows that the world reserve currency eventually changes (it was the British pound before the US and changed with world War 2).

This is a reason you also saw the rise of cryptocurrency and gold appreciate due to concerns with dollar reserve status
In my opinion it is best to diversify with

– US market (as most on these fire discussions are doing)
– international exposure such as ACWX which has outperformed the US in 2025

– precious metals like gold. Gold has outperformed in 2025 so far, in calendar year 2024, from 2000 until 2010 when the Americas market was negative and even a longer time period from 2000 until present

– real estate
– fixed income
– some farming

Diversification is key and allows you to stomach volatility

[Michael]

The only real reason is the US dollar is the world reserve currency and it’s fiat monopoly money. (So, assets always go up, dollar value always goes down)

I agree with you.

The US will lose its status just as the Dutch Guilder and British pound.

[Dalen]

The US is going through some changes where people are realizing that they have fewer rights and freedoms than they thought.

But the rights and freedoms they thought they had were largely illusions, and didn’t apply to many or even most.

If you think things now or in the near future are or will be “extremely different” for most people on a personal level, that’s your privilege and ignorance on display.

[Mitch]

Post-WW2 America saw insane economic growth in every sector, it allowed the US dollar to corner the oil market, and become the global powerhouse it was.

Not to get too political but the country has been circling the drain since about 2010 and I don’t foresee the future being as “boundlessly fruitful” as the past.

[Jennifer]

My personal belief is that AI is going to take the U.S. by storm with greater speed and impact than anything else in our history.

I think we could have massive gains in GDP overnight while seeing huge layoffs.

How does that shake out for markets? None of us has a clue. So, I just keep keeping on…

[Moore]

The computers are starting to talk to us now. The largest companies will benefit the fastest and the most.

The the next 100 years are going to insane for all large companies and America will lead the free world.

Tell me which European companies will capitalize like America?

Who will trust their investment in China? America, was the answer and still is the answer.

[Author]

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