[Kileen]

Today a coworker told my husband that he’d heard/read Projection Lab (and other FI calculators) is often too optimistic.

I could see that if you went solely by the dashboard but I feel like the Chance of Success tool really lets you dive into the worst and best case scenarios.

Has anyone else heard this criticism? It’s got my husband a bit nervous about our plans.

[Frank]

Based on what? A crystal ball of some kind?
Any calculator can output optimistic or pessimistic results if you adjust the inputs to make that happen.

There is not enough info to answer your question because no alternative or justification has been presented.

Beware of pessimists, though, because they often take that approach to make themselves sound smart.

Listen to Morgan Housel warn you about that.

[Martina]

Too optimistic compared to what? I used projection lab, Boldin, and ERN’s SWR sheet and they all are pretty aligned on my chances of success, using a lower SWR than say 4%.

So, what are we comparing it to?

[Michael]

Most of these tools allow you to input a wide range of variables- whether the output is overly optimistic is entirely dependent on the optimism of the inputs.

[Caitlin]

But you set your own assumptions…how is it being optimistic

[Andrew]

One thing to keep in mind is that any “Chance of Success” calculator represents the success of your plan without any adjustment.

In reality, you’ll adjust based on new information (unless your projected budget is so tight that it leaves no room to adjust even in the worst markets).

From that perspective, most calculators are likely pessimistic.

[Author]

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