[USER]

I’m not going to lie. All this uncertainty going forward with the new administration has me feeling really uneasy about my S&P 500 Index fund set it an forget it plan.

Trying to control my nervous emotions and feeling like I need to try and protect the growth I had this year is getting the best of me.

I expect some serious volatility in 2025 and likely even a good correction in this inflated market.

Can we really trust that future markets will follow historic patterns?

Who is making moves and pivoting from their plan to protect the retirement nest egg?

[Travis]

First rule of the stock market is to check your emotions at the door. 2nd rule is to not try to attempt to time the market. Zoom out.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 91% over the last 5 years.

[Melissa]

I expect volatility because they are incompetent –
fascist governments always choose loyalty over competence – the upside is while the price of groceries and average goods may increase (due to tariffs and deporting the people who pick our food for next to nothing), I am cautiously optimistic the real estate market will adjust and there will be interest rate reductions as the economy contracts and hopefully lower or at least stable home prices.

Edit: no plans to change any investment allocations. All broad market index funds.

[Arvind]

The historic pattern is ~10% annualized return over a long period of time, but with occasional entire decades where the return is close to zero

[Patrick]

No reason to worry. The trump trade is real. The next 4 years is money making time imo.

[Steve]

As opposed to the uncertainty with the current administration ??
Personally, I feel stocks are a bit overvalued but I’m optimistic with the future and staying the course like I always had.

[Rawee]

Look at the SPY past 14 years, then look at the previous 14 before that – the market doesn’t have to do anything forever.

Think of your investment dollars as long-term and short-term.

Long-term investments (401k, Roth), who cares, keep DCA. Short-term dollars invested into a brokerage, if you have some invested since 2022, would be wise to lock-in gains after back-to-back 20% years, then re-invest throughout your perceived choppy period (If that’s your thesis).

But you should always have more invested in long-term for the compound effect.

My split is 60/40%. Not saying I agree, but I’m looking at more PE stocks to invest in 2025 in my brokerage vs. the wider market.

[Dave]

Yes, De-regulation and a pro business administration filled with successful CEO’s is murder on the markets!

[John]

I understand. Spending by the US Government represents 36% (more than one-third) of the economy, and undocumented immigrants make up about 5% of the total US workforce, heavily weighted in agriculture, hospitality, and construction.

So, when an incoming administration comes in with ‘slash and burn’ and ‘mass deportation’-type rhetoric, you are not wrong to be concerned how much that affects the (market) apple cart. And most of us really like the state of that apple cart.

The first version of the administration (2017-2021) took much more of a ‘stay the course but with conservative ideals’ course.

None of us knows how much of that new rhetoric will come to fruition, and if so, how much it will affect stock market returns.

But if you are concerned, you could put 25-30% of your investments in bonds, cash equivalents, and real estate.

[Jim]

Can we really trust that future markets will follow historic patterns? Yes, absolutely. Just as in the past, has always been in the past, the market will go up or will go down.

Your safest plan is to stick to your strategy. Emotions and speculating on possible futures will not help you.

If you had a good strategy before, then you still have a good strategy.

Having said that, changing conditions and technologies might warrant revisions to your strategy.

In light of the last ten years, I personally think everyone should be allocating some portion of their portfolio to bitcoin as a safe haven.

[Megan]

When the market goes down that only means investments are on sale. That’s when you double down and put more in.

[Troy]

I’ve taken profits from my gains and allocated some funds to gold and silver mining companies. Many good companies way undervalued.

The melt up is still happening but loading up on cash is not a terrible idea with a highly anticipated correction.

[Daniele]

I am considering taking it all out and moving it to a CD. Just wait it out until the copper con man is gone.

[David]

No one is smart enough to reliably time the markets. Just when you think you know when it will go down it will do the opposite. The 5 -8 year trend is up… always up.

It may zigzag to get there but trust the process.

The S&P essentially represents the largest companies across the entire US economy.

We are stronger than any nation across the globe and there’s no material reason to think the market will go down beyond a short term correction which is unavoidable for a long term investor.

Hold tight and buy more if/when it dips. Trump is as likely to be a net positive for the markets as he is to be a negative.

[Josh]

In sept of 2020 I moved all my 401k out of stocks and into bonds because I was certain that there would be some level of drama/chaos around the election if Trump lost.

I was right about part of it, but the market completely ignored that and I missed out on tens of thousands of dollars in growth.

Please don’t be like me and think you can. Time the market.

[Aaron]

What year are you retiring?
Do you expect American business to be doing better or worse by that point?

No I’m not changing my plan .

[Maquissia]

The market will continue to grow. When there’s a correction, buy more. But never stop buying and never stay on the sidelines waiting to see what happens.

[Amy]

I totally agree with your concern!!! I’m 3 years away from retirement and invested mainly in index funds.

I haven’t made a move yet but think I should take some money out of index fund and into bonds and less risky investments.

[Gafa]

I tried timing the market once or twice… Cost of education was pretty high… Just think about this… there is a guy, long-term Tesla holder that sold pretty big chunk of Tesla shares couple of days before election…

[Ryan]

If you’re near retirement I can see your concern about volatility. If you’re more than 10years out I think you have less to worry about.

Besides S&P is relatively less volatile than stocks in general but while this is a charged issue, I think what we’re really discussing is how will it affect your timeline and plan for the future.

Figure that out, and you will then align your investments with that.

Definitely take the emotion out of it and if necessary consult with someone who has the expertise and that you trust.

The only advice I have about that is don’t pay a percentage pay a flat fee.

[Micah]

Feelings will get you hurt when it comes to investing.. I recommend you read The Psychology of Money.. turn off the TV and stay the course.

[Brian]

It’s crazy to me that some people are afraid of volatility in something as safe as the s&p.

It’s hard to go safer than that.

[Steve]

If you are nervous about the incoming administration, I don’t think the S&P 500 underperforming in 2025 is really a logical concern.

I don’t think even Trump’s harshest critics have ever said “He’s bad for the stock market!”

[Author]

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