[USER]

Year end reflection: I’m trying to gauge when would be safe to retire based on my numbers:

– 44 years
– 550k in investments / 92% stock 3% bonds / 5% BTC
– Contributing 45k after CPA does takes this year
– Make appx. 115k yearly with about 35% SR (varies)
– Expenses 6,500 monthly (varies)

– Condo paid at age 55 (currently 15 years @2%)
Most of my calculators project I’ll need to work until 60-62 to get to 3.2 mil (target FIRE). Assuming 7% ROI / 3% inflation. Not counting SS, it’s a joke.

My thought is I will need about 95k a year, only slightly less than I bring home now in order to cover my lifestyle and the rising costs of our $h!t healthcare.

I’d rather error on saving “too much” than not enough. Am I missing anything?

TIA

[Robert]

You have not indicated if you are a Dude, or a Dudette. If you are a Dude, your life expectancy is 79 years of age, with a good chance you will live into your 80’s.

If you are a Dudette, your life expectancy is 88 years of age, with a good chance you will live into your 90’s.

You’ll need to plan accordingly. Since, owing to your age, your FRA is 68 years of age (although I can certainly see it being raised in the future) I’m a lot more confident that you will have the money you need (esp.

if you are wanting to err on the side of “too much than not enough”- GAWD, if more people thought like you, this country would not be sleepwalking into a retirement crisis) if you retire, at say, 68-70.

Social Security will still be there, in some way, shape or form, but I can benefits both being limited and/or means-tested. But I think you certainly have the proper mindset.

[Russell]

One of the core ideas of FIRE is that retirement can be cheaper than working. You are home more, so can cook more, spend less on others doing for you things you can do for yourself if you only had the time, lower vehicle costs, etc.

Yet your estimate is a 21% increase in expenses over what you currently have.

That may be valid. Only you can estimate your future medical costs or how they compare to your costs with employer subsidization, but the 7% return when you’re only 3% in bonds, lack of SS, and the increased costs all say you’re being EXTREMELY conservative in your assumptions.

That said, $2.3M isn’t that much more than $1.9M once your have a fair amount in the market.

[Tricia]

I hope you’re counting for inflation for the next 20 to 50 years however, long you live

[Steve]

Did you take into account additional expenses in retirement related to more leader time?

To be on a safe side, I would use 3.5-4% inflation, just in case the Fed will have difficulty keeping it around a target 2%

[John]

Yeah, you’re missing that SS will very likely be there in some form for your retirement starting in the 65-70 range most likely.

[Lindsey]

Are you using 7% nominal return or real return? Should be 7% real return.

10% actual return less 3% inflation.

[Aaron]

You’re missing the fact that SS is no joke. Many people rely on it as most of their retirement income and it’s not going anywhere.

The rules around it will tweak when required to keep it solvent.

[Author]

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