[Ted]

Consensus? For those of you who know the Rule of 72, how many years do you predict it will take your existing portfolio to double (hypothetically assuming no additions/ draw downs starting today).? 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 years…or none of the above? Thanks!

[Michelle]

I go with 7% (to factor in inflation) so 10ish years.

[Frank]

I wouldn’t. I would use a Monte Carlo simulation based on WHAT I AM ACTUALLY HOLDING. Anything else is just a personal crystal ball. And today’s consensus crystal ball is always biased.

If you are using the S&P 500, the nominal returns are about 10-11% and the inflation adjusted (real) returns are about 8% historically for the past 100 years. I don’t know anyone or any consensus who has a better crystal ball than that.

[Kent]

If we’re talking about doubling in “value” (i.e., buying power), we should be talking about the “real” returns of the S&P 500. (Excluding inflation).

I believe the S&P 500 has produced something like 6.5% real returns over time.

So, 72/6.5 = 11 years

[Rus]

I use 10. Makes the math easy and somewhat factors in inflation.

[Aaron]

I use 4% so that I’m looking at the doubling of the actual purchasing power of the portfolio and not ignoring inflation.

[Brooks]

4 years (72/18), and that’s why I do re even though I hate it.

[Author]

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