[USER]

I feel like all FIRE math (atleast for Americans) would be significantly unreliable now considering the unpredictability of markets, interest rates, the introduction of other factors like tarriffs, trade wars, real wars, etc.

I don’t even trust the normal retirement calculators anymore.

Thoughts?

[David]

The 1970s were a bucket of economic suck and uncertainty. So was the 2008 financial crisis. All that is factored into the long term gains in the S&P500.

If you are want to protect yourself, keep one leg in US equities (VOO), keep the other in international (VYMI) and keep your leg in gold (GLDM).

[Kristin]

The tariffs will lead to increased growth and prosperity. Perhaps a temporary up and down, but ultimately, less taxes and more income.

Things are looking up.

[David]

LOL. All of those have always been unpredictable over the short term.

You see today as special because you’re living the volatility in the moment rather than looking at it with 20/20 vision on historical charts.

[Lisa]

The questions about the future of healthcare/ACA alone have completely thrown me off.

[Jason]

you are watching too much news.
invest as much as you possibly can every month into broad index and go live your life.

You are guaranteed to be a multi millionaire

[Kerry]

Same as it ever was. You build your plan based on your time horizon and your risk tolerance, and you stick to the plan.

[Ellen]

If you are only planning for the good times, you aren’t planning well. Being prepared for a 2008 or an oil embargo or a war is part of the game.

Each person decides how to do that. Some diversify their investment portfolio, some hold real estate, some buy gold, some can food and stockpile bullets.

You are the only person who can decide what makes sense for you and your family, but current and potential market fluctuations are just par for the course.

[David]

Remember that the longterm average market returns include the great depression WWII, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the oil crisis, the dotcom bubble, the housing crisis, and more.

Long term investments in the market have historically weathered some pretty terrible stuff.

[Smith]

Welcome to life 101…
We retired in 2019, and the only consistent thing on our path to retirement was change.

[April]

I am not sure I would depend on ACA being around longterm, or at least the tax credits for premiums being around longterm.

You could possibly retire to a less expensive country if you had to.

[Karl]

Lol, you just described life as a grown up. Regardless of where you live, what country you’re from, there are literal tons of factors that make the market move one way or another.

Been that way for a long, long time. It will be that way for even longer.

Long term…

You have to remember the big picture. We aren’t day traders….

[Bruce]

Unpredictability of Markets, rates, tariffs, trade wars, real wars… none of this is new.

All of it has existed throughout history.
And will continue to.
Ignore the noise.

Set and forget.
You’ll become very rich.

[David]

The key to easy FIRE and sleeping easy at night is hard assets that pay passive income.

All the current political ignorance and nonsense has almost no impact on my investments.

[Chrissy]

Same. Even real estate is a risky bet since tenants might not be able to pay rent or something like that with a crash, but at least you would have the physical asset.

[Cutting]

I think if you’re uncertain then you just start identifying things you CAN bet on. Sometimes it’s best to look away from the numbers and at the realities behind them.

Inflation is certain.

People will always need housing, food, medical, etc.

Gold will always be real money. If you want income, you can buy things that produce rental income.

In times of uncertainty look to your understanding of the world more than your understanding of markets.

[Shawn]

All of that is only everything the markets have been through for well over a hundred years while averaging over 10%.

If you are still worried, invest more than what you think you should a little extra conservatively with simple cheap diversification, while having a bigger emergency fund than you think you need and pay off all debt except maybe the house.

[Shawn]

Judging by some of the comments here, I think you’re right to be worried as an American. This is quite possibly the least intelligent generation American has seen.

But all is not lost, the S&P has gone through many crises and survived, including a 20 year Vietnam war, the 80s energy shock, 911, 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2008 Great Financial Crisis, and Covid.

Trump is just 4 years. America’s reputation may be irrecoverable, but her companies are pretty resilient.

[Author]

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