[USER]

Given the current economic conditions and news (Tarrifs) I’m considering moving money from my TSP C Fund (basically VTSAX) into the G fund (bonds) to avoid what seems like an inevitable flash crash coming… am I wrong?

While I am normally sympathetic to the hold forever argument we all tend to abide by, i think those arguments tend to assume you have 30+ years to make up for it, in which case they are correct that a crash early on will likely have no impact.

I’m just starting out with FIRE but im probably 7-10 years from FIRE (35 now).

And I’m wondering if dodging the possibility of an incoming crash in the coming weeks is worth the risk of missing gains. What do you all think?

[Zach]

Robert
You have just said you are 35 years old. That means, under SECURE 2.0, that you do not need to take RMD’s from your 401(k) until you are age 75.

(Btw, if I was your age, my TSP would be in the Roth 401(k), and not in the regular 401(k), but the Roth 401(k) was not an option when I first came into federal service.)

in an event since you do not need to take RMD’s until 40 years from now…… Keep it all in the C fund and forget about it for the next 30 to 35 years or so.

Something tells me that between now and the next 30 to 35 years they’re gonna be booms… They’re gonna be busts….

But the long-term direction of the C fund is only going to go in one direction ….and that’s up.

You cannot worry about day-to-day, or even year to year fluctuations…. Not when your timeframe is measured in decades.

[Juli]

I diversified some of my
portfolio into international stocks. I am also buying the dip.

[Rebecca]

Trump has threatened to do things that would also tank the bond market, although granted, it’s less likely.

I don’t think you can win by trying to time or predict the market, but you can create more security by diversifying what you invest in.

Us stocks and plenty of international stocks, There’s also some of those real estate mutual funds now where you can easily invest in real estate, people say gold, There’s Bitcoin.

If everything tanks, we’re going to have a lot more on our mind than trying to retire early.

Also, I don’t think Trump is going to let the stock market go down too much before reversing course.

It’s the only number he cares about.

[Zach]

“The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” – Peter Lynch

[Christi]

A number of weeks back I moved as much of our money as possible to the safest options possible in our 401ks and SEP IRA.

I couldn’t shield all of it, as my husband’s 401k options are limited.

At 51/55 we thought we’d work at least another 10 years, but after my husband was recently diagnosed with leukemia.

I want to retire him in half that time if we can.

I’d rather lose some possible gains than lose big. Not everyone has decades to ride things out.

For me it’s 100% worth missing gains. We are in unprecedented times, so no historical facts or trends really mean much to me at this very moment.

[Anna]

Also… more millionaires are made during recessions. Buy when stocks are on sale, and dollar cost average. Stick to fundamentals and turn off the news.

Many lose big because of the psychology of money.

Stick with it and don’t do something silly because of a knee jerk reaction to what’s happening.

[Philip]

At age 35 your portfolio will go through many rough spots over the years.

It would really be great to time the market each time, but is that realistic?

Best option could be to simply keep buying.

[Bánh]

I split 50/50 C and I as a hedge. I am ok with losing some gains. Just don’t put in G, I think G is horrible.

With the pivot in alliance between US and EU, and the emergency summit they had, EU will increase spending within the continent to decouple from the US.

My other reasoning coming from this admin behavior with crypto and tendency to tweet, this kind of thing got me thinking they bought puts & calls and the news would direct the market in directions they wanted.

Japan, India, Taiwan and Australia is one of the big piece in I composition though but I felt they are safer choice atm.

[Vee]

I’m not selling anything, but any new money goes toward heavy diversification: int’l xUS funds, Tbills, gold, crypto, REITS.

So far it’s balanced out nicely.

[Author]

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